Aiece General Report (autumn 2009)
Report submitted at the AIECE Autumn General Meeting, Brussels, 26th-27th October 2006 - N.74 - octobre 2006
31/10/2006
The general consensus among the AIECE institutes this autumn is that the global expansion might remain strong, although a deceleration is expected. Growth expectations have been revised upwards by the AIECE institutes for the Euro area in 2006. The forecast for 2007 remains unchanged : a significant deceleration of growth is expected.
The world economy will register one of its highest growth rates in 2006. However, signs showing that the upswing phase of the current cycle is close to an end have already emerged, as illustrated by the slight deceleration of the year-on-year increase of world trade growth since last spring.
The general consensus among the AIECE institutes is that the global expansion might remain strong, although a deceleration is expected.
US GDP growth is revised downwards for 2007, compared to projections made six months ago. It would be cut by around one point compared to 2006 (from 3.4% to 2.6%). Remaining above the poor rates registered in the 1990 's, Japan GDP growth would moderate to 2.2% next year after having peaked to 2.7% in 2006.
Growth expectations have been revised upwards by the AIECE institutes for the Euro area in 2006 in the wake of the strong expansion observed in the first half of the year. However, the forecast for 2007 remains unchanged compared to the spring meeting, suggesting a significant deceleration of growth momentum in the course of the year.
Overview
1. The International Environment
1.1. The US economy
1.2. Asia
1.3. Other emerging countries
2. Euro Area
2.1. Buoyant growth in 2006, slowdown in 2007
2.2. A further improvement in the labour market?
2.3. Resilient inflation in the Euro area?
2.4. A minor appreciation of the Euro exchange rate is likely
2.5. ECB refinancing rate stable… on average
2.6. Fiscal stance in Euro area member countries
3. Growth performances in Europe outside the Euro area
3.1. Non Euro Western European countries
3.2. Candidate countries to the accession to the EMU
