Mesurer les points retournements du cycle du commerce mondial (encadré)

World industrial production and world imports show an upward trend along time. In statistical terms, they are not only integrated of order one but also co-integrated. We will rather focus here on the degree of cyclical link, i.e. the co-movement. Therefore, it is necessary first to extract the trend in order to compare the deviation to trend. Several types of filters are available to extract the trend. We will use the preferred Christiano-Fitzegerald filter.