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EUREN Winter Forecast 2011 for the Euro area : Growth will remain moderate

- N.1/2011 - Février 2011

10/02/2011

This issue presents the most recent forecast of the EUREN network for the Euro area. It points out that the recovery will continue in 2011 and 2012, although at a slightly slower pace than the trend observed between early 1990’s and 2007.

Sentiment Indicators for the Euro area 2008-11

According to most leading indicators, the Euro area economy will continue to recover in the first months of 2011. Sentiment indicators are already clearly above the pre-crisis level.

Our projections assume that GDP will continue to grow over the forecast horizon, mainly thanks to the positive trend of exports. However, the growth rate is expected to be quite moderate.

On the one hand, foreign demand will lose momentum after the strong rebound of last year. On the other hand, domestic demand is not strengthening yet.

As a whole, Euro area GDP is expected to grow by 1.5% this year and 1.7% next year. In this context, unemployment rate is expected to stabilize this year before slightly declining in 2012.

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