La lettre du réseau Euren
Les neuf instituts du réseau Euren mettent en commun dans une newsletter bimestrielle leurs analyses sur différents aspects de la situation économique de la zone euro : marché du travail, finances publiques, etc. L’accent est mis sur les comparaisons entre pays.
Deux fois par an, les instituts d’Euren présentent leur prévision actualisée des grands agrégats économiques (PIB, taux de chômage), à l’horizon de deux ans. A l'automne, chaque institut présente ses prévisions pour les comptes publics de son pays.
Chaque automne les instituts membres du réseau EUREN , présentent des prévisions à court terme pour les finances publiques de leur pays. Cette note rassemble leurs contributions (dont celle de Coe-Rexecode sur la France) et les compare aux prévisions de la Commission européenne.
In autumn the EUREN institutes traditionally present their outlook on public finances in their home countries.
Focussing on the change of the budget balance over time, it becomes evident what progress has been made in consolidation. In the Euro area budget deficit decreased from more than 6% relative to GDP to about 3%. At the moment it even looks like the outcome for 2012 might be even somewhat better than expected. Between summer and autumn the commission revised its forecast of the deficit in 2012 slightly downward. The projections from the EUREN institutes suggest that the result could be even somewhat better. At least in many countries the deficit forecast is below the commission’s expectation, even if only slightly.
For 2013, compared to summer, the EC revised its forecast for the Euro area to the negative side. But according to the latest projections of the EUREN institutes, the outlook for 2013 again looks somewhat brighter, at least for the most countries – the only exception is Italy. However, in the current situation it is extremely difficult to say how budget balances will evolve.
The global growth forecast of EUREN Institutes for 2012-2013 is less optimistic than it was at the beginning of the year as there are substantial downside risks. The Euro area GDP is expected to shrink by 0.3% in 2012, with large differences between members.
According to Euren institutes , this year the economic performance will differ quite substantially between regions of the world: declining GDP in the Euro Area, a slight acceleration of the US and some slowing down in emerging countries will generate a lower global growth compared to 2011.
For the year 2012, the EUREN institutes forecast Euro area GDP to shrink by 0.3%, with large differences between members. Whereas economic activity is expected to increase in Germany, Austria, Slovakia and some other countries, a strong decline can be awaited in particular for Greece, Spain and Italy.
See also in this edition :
- Editorial: Joining EMU again? A View from New Member State
- Boxes : Greece after the elections - Is a bailout needed for Spain?