Coe-Rexecode publications and informations available in english
Most of our publications are in french but every time a translation or a summary in english is available you may find it in this section. See also the documents published with our partners of the Association of European Conjuncture Institutes (AIECE) and the European Economic Network (EUREN).
Chaque automne les instituts membres du réseau EUREN , présentent des prévisions à court terme pour les finances publiques de leur pays. Cette note rassemble leurs contributions (dont celle de Coe-Rexecode sur la France) et les compare aux prévisions de la Commission européenne.
In autumn the EUREN institutes traditionally present their outlook on public finances in their home countries.
Focussing on the change of the budget balance over time, it becomes evident what progress has been made in consolidation. In the Euro area budget deficit decreased from more than 6% relative to GDP to about 3%. At the moment it even looks like the outcome for 2012 might be even somewhat better than expected. Between summer and autumn the commission revised its forecast of the deficit in 2012 slightly downward. The projections from the EUREN institutes suggest that the result could be even somewhat better. At least in many countries the deficit forecast is below the commission’s expectation, even if only slightly.
For 2013, compared to summer, the EC revised its forecast for the Euro area to the negative side. But according to the latest projections of the EUREN institutes, the outlook for 2013 again looks somewhat brighter, at least for the most countries – the only exception is Italy. However, in the current situation it is extremely difficult to say how budget balances will evolve.
A time stabilized, the market shares of China are again oriented upwards, especially at the expense of its Asian neighbors. Thanks to strong price competiveness, German market shares reach a record high.
Chinese exports / world demand addressed to China
next update : 12/2012